Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488a615caf01ec86613e2951360a2191c5f60133f092a417eb2c382e69cac8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 14c | 14,987$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.21 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 49c | 6,190$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.9 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…cb73backed Yes | 3c | 4,586$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 6c | 4,186$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…9272backed Yes | 4c | 2,804$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…7b13backed Yes | 5c | 2,003$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 9c | 1,174$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 8c | 667.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 7c | 540.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21be…410ebacked Yes | 6c | 484.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 25c | 467.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 8c | 404.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 32c | 393.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…6167backed No | 78c | 359.27$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed Yes | 31c | 283.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…8a36backed No | 43c | 213.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked Yes | 36c | 208.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 38c | 206.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…b217backed Yes | 12c | 160.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes | 15c | 154.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 16c | 114.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…1dbebacked No | 46c | 99.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…7042backed Yes | 48c | 96.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…3e84backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e114backed No | 69c | 68.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 61c | 66.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Yes | 28c | 64.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…b24ebacked No | 63c | 59.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 58.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed Yes | 40c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…b4efbacked No | 66c | 40.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…f8edbacked Yes | 37c | 39.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…d701backed No | 64c | 38.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…d50bbacked Yes | 39c | 37.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683e…bd2dbacked No | 52c | 35.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…949fbacked No | 64c | 35.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…18cebacked Yes | 39c | 35.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 48c | 34.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 42c | 23.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 76c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…7415backed No | 71c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…9bcdbacked No | 79c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…5f11backed No | 64c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…caf8backed No | 64c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 70c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.40 in April?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.