Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.40 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0647924d5d5ddf97f5d55fafbd31d907336896cc2148a39b503c65acc035b342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 1c | 6,945$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 79c | 4,134$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.4 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 20c | 3,205$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 75c | 2,482$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.9 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 19c | 1,663$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.53 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…0936backed No | 14c | 606.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 429.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 5c | 310.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 36c | 310.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 18c | 307.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 5c | 296.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…170cbacked No | 12c | 199.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 68c | 195.28$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 34c | 194.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…9c5fbacked No | 23c | 193.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked Yes | 77c | 184.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 65c | 162.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 80c | 145.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 34c | 142.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…dbb1backed No | 37c | 122.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed No | 36c | 111.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…f36dbacked Yes | 66c | 103.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 36c | 103.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 79c | 101.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 13c | 87.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 77c | 73.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…e808backed No | 25c | 72.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e114backed Yes | 66c | 71.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 16c | 71.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 67c | 68.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb3…564fbacked Yes | 68c | 56.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 39c | 46.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…c79fbacked Yes | 77c | 41.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23aa…d48fbacked No | 29c | 40.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…ec43backed Yes | 65c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…c9cbbacked Yes | 79c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…9049backed Yes | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.40 in April?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.