Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a04c7fca6d30bff16cda7fd762d31a55131a7398cf693f8727ee8c2170ed7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 656.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 30c | 525.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 38c | 258.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 218$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 31c | 211.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 183$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 31c | 148.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 55c | 122.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 50c | 100.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…532ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…a6cdbacked Yes | 16c | 92.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 85.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 68.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…8515backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 38.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 69c | 32.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 29.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 71c | 26.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.