South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a1e9bd12829f714ef5fb573de9a78845ba1636c2f430bd1966bd9f694854f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 14,133$10,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.27 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 32c | 4,999$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.79 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 3,251$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…abe5backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 2,087$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 68c | 1,924$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.52 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,702$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.72 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 68c | 1,535$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.29 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Yes | 7c | 499.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…317abacked Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 29c | 234.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed Yes | 21c | 232$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 191.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 23c | 137.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 31c | 111.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 68c | 105.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 104.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 23c | 84.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 79.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 22c | 77.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 69c | 73.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 25c | 65.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 32c | 61.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 68c | 59.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 35c | 56.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 23c | 54.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 23c | 51.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 68c | 38.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 30c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 69c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 78c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…8bdfbacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-17?Yes won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.