South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e6936d493ba0cbe98266cc001da92343c2c02abf0b5ab2e1e99e229441d4903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 60c | 11,785$7,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,685.35 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 7,851$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 25c | 6,310$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,711.65 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 64c | 4,355$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.53 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…b109backed Yes | 54c | 4,197$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 65c | 4,058$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.68 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 27c | 2,890$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.54 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 58c | 2,628$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.08 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 43c | 2,219$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.4 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 28c | 1,985$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.7 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 1,826$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 41c | 1,364$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.76 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed No | 19c | 649.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 60c | 432.85$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.56 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 18c | 399.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 23c | 361$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 350$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 29c | 348.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 22c | 330.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…0350backed Yes | 63c | 318.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 10c | 273.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 61c | 267.22$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d29…65e7backed No | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 57c | 230$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 63c | 208.19$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 58c | 178.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 175.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 168.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…24c6backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 151.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 145.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked No | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 37c | 128.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed No | 30c | 127.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked No | 40c | 122.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac60…4c8fbacked Yes | 75c | 119$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed No | 38c | 117.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 50c | 116.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 58c | 105.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 42c | 97.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 47c | 96.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 57c | 92.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 22c | 92.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 32c | 86.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed No | 67c | 84.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 43c | 82.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…062cbacked Yes | 66c | 76.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked No | 38c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 61c | 52.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 75c | 44.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…b94abacked Yes | 76c | 42.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…3e4dbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 48c | 39.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 61c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed No | 69c | 27.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 66c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 48c | 26.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 65c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-08-17?this page
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.