Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a29c254c576b92e92b35778bdc4e1b51695c1907a648b962291584223a0ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 774.32$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.74 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 68c | 665.05$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3d…e2abbacked Yes | 42c | 295.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 241.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 60c | 215.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 75c | 211.26$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 199.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 32c | 188.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 12c | 166.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 146.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 128.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 61c | 110.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 108.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 101.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 100.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 99.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 84.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 76.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 75.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3fbcbacked No | 53c | 69.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 68.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 37c | 67.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 23c | 60.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked No | 61c | 59.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 44c | 54.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 52.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 46.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 45.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 47c | 44.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…e8a1backed Yes | 26c | 42.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 42.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 41.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 36.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 47c | 30.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 59c | 28.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 42c | 28.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 27.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.