Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe9a601f3179610de188ef7851a94f38712829420b60cc2be8d2aaa8ec815ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 390.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 297.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 67c | 295.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 260.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 73c | 211.64$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 144.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 128.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 123.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0028…fdc6backed Yes | 36c | 104.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 62c | 96.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 94.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 85.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3fbcbacked Yes | 31c | 83.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 83.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 81.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 81.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 80.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 71.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 68.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 68.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 30c | 67.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 15c | 65.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 49.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 40.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 40.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 36c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 47c | 29.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…7b9abacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 22.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 70c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…df5cbacked No | 73c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.