Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48aa96c0e185bae395ee92f73add45eb74a748473655cf784ba9af34b2d17b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 69c | 1,486$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.19 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 77c | 637.44$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.72 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 466.77$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 465.54$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 46c | 293.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 39c | 235.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 224.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 49c | 217.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 195.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…09e2backed No | 50c | 191.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 75c | 181.38$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 177.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 37c | 132$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…9969backed No | 66c | 131.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 127.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 125.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 121.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 120.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 105.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 93.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 92.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 57c | 87.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 86.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 85.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 79.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 71.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 62.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…3df1backed No | 43c | 55.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 52.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 50.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 36.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 33.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 40c | 25.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked No | 56c | 22.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.