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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,025 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c371.73$69 inLost-$69.3610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No78c187.75$147 inWon+$40.8712,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes20c171.78$34 inLost-$34.3682742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No79c151.96$120 inWon+$31.9647758.7%280 W · 197 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes27c151.62$41 inLost-$40.837726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes9c137.28$13 inLost-$1312446%57 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c116.64$25 inLost-$24.969,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes19c97.48$18 inLost-$18.260032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c87.56$63 inWon+$24.662,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed Yes22c86.5$19 inLost-$19.036033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes19c82.88$16 inLost-$15.997532%24 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c76.56$61 inWon+$15.316,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…6bc7backed Yes25c60$15 inLost-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c58.32$45 inWon+$13.3210,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes24c52.54$12 inLost-$12.44,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No77c51.98$40 inWon+$11.986275.8%47 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No78c51.57$40 inWon+$11.1532846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e61…f87bbacked No79c50.87$40 inWon+$10.873773%27 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c50$38 inWon+$11.96,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No79c45$36 inWon+$9.4558053.4%310 W · 270 L-26.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No79c45$36 inWon+$9.451,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c40$32 inWon+$8.42,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No70c28.57$20 inWon+$8.5741551.3%213 W · 202 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.3211457.9%66 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No74c23.85$18 inWon+$6.217058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed No76c20.53$16 inWon+$4.8810863.9%69 W · 39 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No73c20.27$15 inWon+$5.472,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.49273.9%68 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No77c20$15 inWon+$4.68666.3%57 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b0…7dc5backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.610259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon+$3.7546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked No77c15$11 inWon+$3.5227750.2%139 W · 138 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1359…7e7bbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.512875.8%97 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.