TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,256 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes28c816$232 inLost-$232.321,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf1…e136backed Yes9c401.91$38 inLost-$37.512317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No71c326.02$231 inWon+$94.5847845.2%216 W · 262 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes4c299.98$11 inLost-$1114332.2%46 W · 97 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03b4…8706backed Yes14c296.95$40 inLost-$40.312722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes20c253.76$51 inLost-$51.1988124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes24c190.72$46 inLost-$46.057726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes7c170.56$12 inLost-$12.51,00014.8%148 W · 852 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed Yes30c152.04$46 inLost-$45.516033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes18c146$27 inLost-$26.6982742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c126.14$100 inWon+$26.542,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No79c123$97 inWon+$25.511,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes20c121.13$24 inLost-$24.065,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes18c112$20 inLost-$20.1624349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c85.13$66 inWon+$19.16,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes20c84$17 inLost-$16.855238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No68c83.33$57 inWon+$26.532382%265 W · 58 L+32.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes21c81.97$17 inLost-$17.0654238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No76c80$61 inWon+$19.362,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes21c77.22$16 inLost-$1612446%57 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes21c76.28$16 inLost-$16.1537027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…6bc7backed Yes20c60$12 inLost-$121631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c57.24$44 inWon+$13.285,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…bb09backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost-$151921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c54.32$39 inWon+$15.729,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No70c53.33$37 inWon+$1625569%176 W · 79 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c50$35 inWon+$15.46,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No72c50$36 inWon+$141,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost-$16.518947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No73c48.44$35 inWon+$13.093778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes29c45.76$13 inLost-$13.1243947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No72c40.51$29 inWon+$11.341,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c34.81$27 inWon+$8.1857158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No77c34.46$27 inWon+$7.7832846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1822…022fbacked Yes30c34$10 inLost-$10.219421.6%42 W · 152 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c33.59$23 inWon+$10.753,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No79c30$24 inWon+$6.3514262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ed…a8dabacked No73c20$15 inWon+$5.42751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No72c20$14 inWon+$5.611664.7%75 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c20$16 inWon+$42,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a4…c217backed No74c16.21$12 inWon+$4.215778.9%45 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No76c15$11 inWon+$3.5541274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.