Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe307d786fe4f43e4dd85dae217c649cce004ccba7d30f584364118969676197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 29c | 517.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…ea4fbacked No | 71c | 490.53$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed No | 72c | 479.49$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 6c | 435.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 400.07$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.28 | 391 | 55.2%216 W · 175 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 4c | 321.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 44c | 318.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 79c | 296.11$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 56c | 222.25$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 20c | 208.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 54c | 194.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 193.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 164.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,079 | 36.5%394 W · 685 L | +26.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 13c | 162.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 69c | 144.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 9c | 144.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 144.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 61c | 142.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 65c | 116.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 10c | 115.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 28c | 95.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 26c | 94.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 20c | 94.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…0e0dbacked Yes | 12c | 90.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 14c | 90.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 32c | 86.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…2d75backed Yes | 16c | 82.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 75.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 39c | 66.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…9fadbacked Yes | 46c | 63.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 60.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 60.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 77c | 59.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 71c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 48c | 52.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 51.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 70c | 38.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed Yes | 49c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 63c | 32.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ab…3894backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 27.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 57c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 68c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…5bdcbacked Yes | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 73cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.