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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,219 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes7c231.13$15 inLost-$15.3910,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes13c218.7$29 inLost-$29.4382742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes58c179.28$104 inLost-$103.6422160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes37c159.94$60 inLost-$59.7369758.4%407 W · 290 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes13c151.12$20 inLost-$20.114332.2%46 W · 97 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes8c148.02$12 inLost-$11.5488124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes13c127.58$16 inLost-$16.287726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes11c108.9$12 inLost-$11.63,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes14c103.22$14 inLost-$1423237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost-$1737434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes15c91.32$14 inLost-$13.756551.2%289 W · 276 L+53.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes13c88.89$12 inLost-$11.7115066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes14c88.09$13 inLost-$12.521,00014.8%148 W · 852 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…e136backed Yes33c86.92$29 inLost-$28.532317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c83.88$36 inLost-$36.093,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes20c76.56$15 inLost-$15.3110640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c70$53 inWon+$16.646,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c60.21$30 inLost-$29.532,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes38c54.46$21 inLost-$20.6254238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes21c53$11 inLost-$11.156040%24 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No80c50.25$40 inWon+$10.256275.8%47 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes39c42.75$17 inLost-$16.8248446.1%223 W · 261 L+45.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No78c42.24$33 inWon+$9.36988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes63c40.27$25 inLost-$25.3754658.8%321 W · 225 L+47.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff89…5909backed Yes49c40$20 inLost-$19.61315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No54c35.26$19 inWon+$16.3540147.6%191 W · 210 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No35c34.98$12 inWon+$22.7313224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c34.97$12 inWon+$22.731,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes50c32.97$16 inLost-$16.351,10251.7%570 W · 532 L+74.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No79c30.78$24 inWon+$6.372,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6716…6450backed No62c30$19 inWon+$11.42867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21,15463.3%731 W · 423 L+28.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed No66c19.69$13 inWon+$6.651850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+186.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c14.43$11 inWon+$3.3212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.