Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c964a431c125d5e6bdb7c8c5b20c9bb4153b4056ec87283fdef3431a3dd323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 77c | 5,099$3,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.83 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 4,147$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.02 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 3,211$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.05 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 33c | 1,072$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.21 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,067$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.91 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 634.09$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.81 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 377$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 40c | 369.87$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 337.01$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.81 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 23c | 214.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 8c | 167.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes | 19c | 158.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 9c | 112.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed No | 14c | 99.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 31c | 80.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…49babacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 78c | 63.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked No | 17c | 61.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 25c | 60.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 29c | 43.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 25.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. Vitória SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Vitória SC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.