South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48ee895d6eba0d3b4c9063cc93300249ee71c2a340484b46d8ab76a0b24fbfab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 31c | 3,279$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.61 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 2,864$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.59 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 2,822$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.59 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 1,851$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.15 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 2c | 933.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 839.63$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 722.11$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.67 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 6c | 581.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 71c | 527.46$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 20c | 487.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 62c | 435.8$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 79c | 376.69$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…ef89backed Yes | 58c | 369.75$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 66c | 312.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 27c | 217.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 74c | 216.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 70c | 145.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 34c | 110.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 19c | 101.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 23c | 78.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 22c | 62.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 67c | 48.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked No | 32c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 42c | 42.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 72c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…ae42backed Yes | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed Yes | 74c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 23.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.