Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4950a78feea49d2e4a1a53b07a1b0072ea2fc0df75db86e296a49a3d0a235b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 19c | 4,626$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.51 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 3,410$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.45 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 58c | 1,148$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.09 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 18c | 1,034$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 392.9$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 16c | 373.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 22c | 299.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 10c | 256.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 16c | 177$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 16c | 72.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 66.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 65.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 54c | 39.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.