Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b3aba27dd350be67754b7e283571b510c5c5ec2294e14bfe44f8c80eb978cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 3,927$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.59 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,181$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.7 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 22c | 1,158$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 77c | 698.97$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 43c | 516.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 75c | 404.08$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 385$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 345.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 20c | 339.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 316.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 75c | 227.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Under | 47c | 214.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 183.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 43c | 159.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 56c | 133.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 54c | 93.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 85.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 67.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 79cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 77c | 48.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 43.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 68c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 78c | 40.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 71c | 38.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 76c | 37.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 38c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.