Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49606ff0c8a33d1f97432bc23dcf99adea37fc15add5d65c4b86c3391dc30311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 21,232$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…8a61backed Yes | 24c | 2,640$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…b1f3backed Yes | 24c | 2,620$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…c4e4backed Yes | 24c | 2,620$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 1c | 2,094$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…9626backed No | 76c | 1,350$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d0…409ebacked No | 76c | 1,320$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…9fc6backed No | 76c | 1,320$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…2b53backed No | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…6459backed No | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ff3abacked No | 76c | 1,290$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 7c | 377.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 353.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 5c | 352.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 312.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 26c | 240.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 78c | 211.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 181.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 171.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 164.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 160.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 152.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 27c | 151.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 24c | 145.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 138.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 134.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 110.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 105.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 77c | 98.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 91.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 66c | 87.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 74c | 86.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 22c | 81.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 79c | 78.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 20c | 76.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…fa75backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 20c | 51.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff9…d990backed Yes | 30c | 49.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 48.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 77c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae9…0bddbacked No | 74c | 36.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…6a18backed Yes | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa634…16babacked No | 70c | 32.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…3616backed No | 73c | 30.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 80c | 30.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…8c3ebacked No | 73c | 29.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 70c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…7410backed No | 77c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…583ebacked No | 73c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.