TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,500 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83fe…23d9backed No0c9,226$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3632760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…a14abacked No37c2,692$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477b…2cb7backed Yes63c1,366$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x771e…32c0backed Yes63c1,326$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1558…4f75backed Yes45c1,103$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.554271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No58c645.69$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3154143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed Yes57c543$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.936753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77e9…c72abacked No46c464.6$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.522445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4a…41f4backed No34c385$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.91942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed Yes63c374.76$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7511129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9727…8248backed No28c359.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes66c339.46$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes66c319.49$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8721641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes43c253.72$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9566543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No42c225.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.851,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c201.67$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f48…7825backed No65c200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0610614.2%15 W · 91 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes60c190.39$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.041,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes50c181.19$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes39c178.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1266144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes56c175.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes58c158.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes65c150.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.152,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes18c150$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12372726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes51c139.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9723231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c126.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.751,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No35c121.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.866755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked No47c118.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.932528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No37c115.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed2…ad97backed No32c114.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.794047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c107.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No56c106.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc627…5d3dbacked No23c105$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.342548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes48c94.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes55c90.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8465625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No26c88.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No54c86.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3889…24a5backed No58c80.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.265425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No51c79.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1510247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes61c76.06$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.667038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No50c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Yes70c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.57330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4498…c984backed No47c74.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes64c73.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6128737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…19f4backed No34c72.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.494946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd501…3d0abacked No37c68.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.66955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe311…a16fbacked No54c68.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.852653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes61c63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No24c62.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.827560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes75c60.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.335147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4742…a58dbacked Yes68c57.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes73c57.38$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.385042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…04b8backed No64c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.957855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No52c54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0424149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No51c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.288565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes47c52.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9122728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06e…95a1backed No36c50.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1736057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes60c47.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.869447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf21b…5121backed No54c46.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.232958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes37c44.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0111044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86ee…9ebbbacked No36c41.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes43c40.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed Yes75c39.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9827376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No45c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.568256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No35c36.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb9…8e7dbacked Yes62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes65c33.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes61c33.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.011566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2693…5fd0backed No56c31.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No53c31.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2d…2debbacked No52c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x324c…df74backed No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.168239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.516518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7627050.4%136 W · 134 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd979…4a18backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.97540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…dbb7backed Yes43c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes65c29.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2146423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.851,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff4…e1aabacked No37c28.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes55c28.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.985046%23 W · 27 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes37c27.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2125029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…bed8backed No37c27.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+58.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked Yes61c25.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.654080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98c4…5d90backed No61c23.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.564161%25 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No50c23.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes49c21.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.027558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No64c20.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.961,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5991…6340backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.