Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72d48c1c018e4fff3e7b65861be1adb7356e69333227261ac3f4a862c123e82a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 879.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 6c | 378.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 4c | 340.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 4c | 326.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…fa75backed Yes | 6c | 307.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 302.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 14c | 252$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 7c | 237.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 16c | 227.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 12c | 205.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 7c | 201.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 6c | 197.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 190.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 28c | 178.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 9c | 174.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…8f8ebacked Yes | 44c | 169.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 7c | 164.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 8c | 157.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 148.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 145.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 20c | 144.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 11c | 142.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 139.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 18c | 139.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed Yes | 11c | 125.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 104.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 79c | 99.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 20c | 74.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f0…a9b1backed Yes | 43c | 57.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96a…4c14backed Yes | 37c | 52.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 80c | 23.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed No | 80c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.