Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x496f9392eaf06bf01ac2bb4853a48fa17313d016c7b1b6d2b140b87c0c454fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 9,042$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.46 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Under | 79c | 3,380$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.37 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 2,987$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.96 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…0f59backed Under | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 60c | 365$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed Under | 77c | 326$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 36c | 326$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 41c | 320.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 46c | 268.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 243.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 148.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 33c | 62.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Under | 56c | 60.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…be02backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Under | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.