Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4983c17a4b56d3d826295cc83008f8cdd47ff25098ae73f87e7a0cb405064022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 3,694$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.35 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed OG | 63c | 2,288$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.48 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed OG | 59c | 2,201$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.49 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed OG | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 59c | 1,185$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.7 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 1,157$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.71 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 64c | 1,045$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.71 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 55c | 1,008$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8db6backed OG | 64c | 861.13$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.41 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 580.49$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1776…e557backed OG | 65c | 549.81$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 463.6$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed OG | 58c | 399.52$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed OG | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 333.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 318$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 314$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 302.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 292.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 276.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed OG | 61c | 271.13$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 269.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 257.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed OG | 64c | 245.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked OG | 74c | 240$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 222.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…5213backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked OG | 66c | 197.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 169.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked OG | 57c | 167.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 161.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 158.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 146.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked OG | 64c | 116.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed OG | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…022fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed OG | 65c | 97.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed OG | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 85.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 79.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked OG | 69c | 55.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed OG | 75c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed OG | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed OG | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed OG | 71c | 25.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…d2babacked OG | 68c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.