TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof OG, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,673 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1776…e557backed OG67c17,951$12,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,030.572450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy33c12,071$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,121.2971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed OG53c9,395$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nigma Galaxy41c4,499$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.151751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed OG66c3,414$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.2842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy62c2,146$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.3686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Nigma Galaxy33c1,649$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.3458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy60c1,587$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.1345061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Nigma Galaxy34c1,524$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.537941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy37c1,506$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.692,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,495$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.241,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy47c1,396$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.961,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy63c1,376$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.4966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Nigma Galaxy39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61013020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Nigma Galaxy33c906.03$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.0418156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy48c839.55$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.1246649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Nigma Galaxy34c830$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.815653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked OG38c785.97$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.715648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy34c734.01$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.6677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OG52c723.51$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.791,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nigma Galaxy46c707.61$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.4236759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Nigma Galaxy58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29435758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed OG67c699.98$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy46c684.58$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.372,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy44c555.52$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed OG64c489.35$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.1979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Nigma Galaxy36c488.89$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8938653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Nigma Galaxy65c430.65$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7369644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed OG40c424$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed OG8c416.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Nigma Galaxy32c399.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Nigma Galaxy34c398.77$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.774452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Nigma Galaxy55c360$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16214849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Nigma Galaxy40c355$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Nigma Galaxy59c339.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.151,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked OG66c329.8$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed OG10c308$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3517330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Nigma Galaxy43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed OG67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy32c294.12$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked OG46c259.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Nigma Galaxy59c233.45$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4150053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Nigma Galaxy49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9220043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Nigma Galaxy44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11225147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Nigma Galaxy34c185.63$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Nigma Galaxy35c179.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3415033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked OG64c176.2$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Nigma Galaxy42c174.17$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10188166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked OG58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed OG68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed OG68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa05…1f6ebacked OG13c128.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Nigma Galaxy34c125.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.720858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy35c114.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2986451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked OG11c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9289938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x330b…60ccbacked Nigma Galaxy34c103$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.613647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4359250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6692561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed Nigma Galaxy45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Nigma Galaxy39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.997225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Nigma Galaxy54c97.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.182748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked OG59c94.31$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6473554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Nigma Galaxy57c87.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8140047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f8…22babacked Nigma Galaxy45c84.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6db3…359abacked OG60c79.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4462…7807backed Nigma Galaxy34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5312650.8%64 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Nigma Galaxy46c72.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3923957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Nigma Galaxy59c69.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.396131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed OG49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Nigma Galaxy47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1918764.7%121 W · 66 L+17.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed OG39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed OG47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Nigma Galaxy75c45.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cd…3ca2backed Nigma Galaxy47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.556532.3%21 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed OG46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.437851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Nigma Galaxy45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3320952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed OG37c28.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.546431.3%20 W · 44 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7028…66d1backed Nigma Galaxy56c26.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9512258.2%71 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Nigma Galaxy47c24.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8357654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd96b…be6bbacked OG44c22.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123850%19 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Nigma Galaxy68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.430250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Nigma Galaxy68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.