Earnings · resolved market
Will ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x499806221a598eeb2761549f5f50cb2a32198b9e3c3342ad8eb09eb015bf008d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e77…137ebacked Yes | 79c | 13,000$10,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…0a5dbacked No | 21c | 13,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +381.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 76c | 1,288$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.74 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 1c | 1,115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 27c | 1,110$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.71 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 18c | 863.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.77 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 795.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.95 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 19c | 499.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.97 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 416.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 21c | 400$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…32c2backed No | 30c | 313.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed No | 26c | 305.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 75c | 280.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 24c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 19c | 184.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 19c | 106.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 80c | 104.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked No | 24c | 101.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…5fdbbacked Yes | 80c | 82.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 79.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…6ec5backed Yes | 75c | 60.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa215…afb7backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…43f0backed Yes | 80c | 22.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…1c34backed Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.