UFC · resolved market
Will Dan Hooker fight Paddy Pimblett next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x499e6ec09fb2eed892d21682f143f147f8a2f588ff3fda594e56cfb0b0956148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 16c | 698.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 75c | 232.77$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 69c | 204.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 22c | 153$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 78c | 153$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 111.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 48c | 94.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 17c | 76.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…2c52backed No | 48c | 57.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 30c | 55.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 31c | 40.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…4d80backed No | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da6…867fbacked Yes | 69c | 24.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 24.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dan Hooker fight Paddy Pimblett next?this page
- Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Paddy Pimblett next?No won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Paddy Pimblett next?Yes won
- Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Paddy Pimblett next?No won
- Will Rafael Fiziev fight Paddy Pimblett next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.