MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a0b9dc7e4818f29bdfdf00382eedde3a6653ed618204b8f085a564039f43f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 2,555$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.88 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 2,417$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.78 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,257$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.91 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,073$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 1,042$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.53 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 984.42$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.37 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 780.02$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.43 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 605.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.9 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 454.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.96 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 451.79$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.18 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 435.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.33 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 303.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.73 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 292.62$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 282.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 175.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 161.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 142.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 114.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…c705backed Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 78.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 77.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Rangers | 47c | 76.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 61.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 54.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Texas Rangers | 49c | 54.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 54.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 49.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 43.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 39.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 28.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 28.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 22.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 19.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.