MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe311fcec29a833a78cb863dcdb07a0e494d11db76b36ea9c102c7da3ef21398e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Yes | 52c | 3,024$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.85 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked No | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…2287backed No | 51c | 1,607$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.06 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 48c | 579.16$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 52c | 483.73$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 48c | 395.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 57c | 375.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.73 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 53c | 369.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.37 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 50c | 232.57$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 48c | 213.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Yes | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Yes | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked No | 48c | 46.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed No | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed No | 52c | 32.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Yes | 52c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Yes | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.