Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d0f955bce6d6011e27380ce58f463a8c08421c27dd6e9aee06bd9305b9e713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 1,555$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 42c | 1,307$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.99 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 57c | 705.08$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.18 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 43c | 693.1$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 50c | 589$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.5 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 503$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked No | 5c | 499.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 59c | 369.49$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 60c | 332.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 58c | 316.64$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 199$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…588abacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed Yes | 61c | 83.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 38c | 44.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 38.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 41c | 26.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 58c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.