TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,093 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under46c104,610$48,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,641.832832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x43a4…7170backed Under47c82,845$39,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,0001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over53c33,583$17,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,845.0416652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Over53c30,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,100475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over53c24,574$13,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,549.679455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over53c19,880$10,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,343.61,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over53c12,222$6,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,744.342365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over53c11,904$6,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,556.412,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over54c7,502$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450.877062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over54c7,028$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,267.578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under48c6,136$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.481464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c5,998$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.0233244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over55c5,289$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.962857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Over52c4,238$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.771250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8802962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3807057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over54c1,895$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.891,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under45c1,545$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70522747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under47c1,347$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6331931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under47c1,048$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.72867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4508336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c873.4$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Over79c801$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.56977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+90.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over54c800$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37216850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3688764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over53c743$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.219459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over55c549.96$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.486532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over55c540$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2435052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Under5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26345.9%2 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over53c399.94$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.972536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under47c389$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8310040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.36977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.378846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over50c340$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1706659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13811860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13812162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over40c251.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.036549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1158461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11512858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over52c248.7$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3812832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over54c220$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9215453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.154748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.49659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.88261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.443250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x22b9…6ae2backed Over60c166.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over54c160$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over54c157.41$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6910360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Over55c140.17$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.081353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over53c136.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.417759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under43c134.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0414254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.22673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Over53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Over57c119.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.593644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under47c109.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.211,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over56c108.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick67cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd2…e8e8backed Over57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over56c102.87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.667230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Over53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Over53c98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.581376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+50.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Over54c94.94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.671450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3420753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over55c83.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.