Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9bd93fff0af1980fa119d0a1a92cefb599a983fe18f63e918842d0829322197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 68c | 24,989$16,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,996.51 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 32c | 13,591$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.03 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 8,000$6,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 7,616$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Under | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 31c | 4,428$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.67 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 32c | 2,699$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.68 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,285$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.98 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 30c | 1,750$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.7 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 30c | 1,266$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.91 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 32c | 939.04$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.71 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 70c | 642.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Under | 68c | 519.92$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 32c | 440.75$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 68c | 322.04$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 77c | 291.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Over | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 26c | 232.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 70c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 32c | 190$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 25c | 177.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 23c | 155.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 68c | 147.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 29c | 145.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 30c | 130.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 128.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Over | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 32c | 86.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 26c | 71.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 66.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 32c | 62.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 32c | 62.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 60.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 28c | 48.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 32c | 40.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 69c | 31.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.