Champions League · resolved market
Will Red Star Belgrade beat Stuttgart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e75531ded2fcabbc2063e0b369fc113d2b5924923ce86fe3c562314712c174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 77c | 2,345$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.65 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,776$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.07 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…2becbacked No | 78c | 1,700$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.48per pick | 41cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 77c | 907.55$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.81 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 23c | 892.07$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.89 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 58c | 859$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 295 | 40.3%119 W · 176 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 23c | 750.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.51 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 33c | 737.67$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.82 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 50c | 559.92$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 23c | 527.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.01 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…1b0ebacked Yes | 24c | 395.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 76c | 389$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes | 35c | 306.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a9…caccbacked No | 55c | 300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed No | 24c | 294.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 22c | 290.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 35c | 277.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 30c | 250.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 24c | 108.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…9f2abacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…2b03backed No | 77c | 64.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 30.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 49c | 29.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 65cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat Stuttgart?this page
- Will Stuttgart beat Red Star Belgrade?No won
- Will the match between Red Star Belgrade and Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.