Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49edde7c0a359b31a1c3ecbe16ef6a4218c1d295baf0485cb779eb5ffe4f9e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 61c | 724.1$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.68 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…feacbacked No | 75c | 667.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 342.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 287.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 280.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 232.81$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 61c | 219.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 34c | 140.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 122.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 113.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 42c | 108.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 45c | 98.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 55c | 94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 91.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 81.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 37c | 80.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 50c | 78.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 64c | 75.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 42c | 69.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked No | 59c | 67.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 62.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 61.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 60.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 57.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 52c | 52.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 52.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 51.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 49c | 51.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 50.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 51c | 49.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 57c | 48.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 50c | 48.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 33c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 45.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e1fabacked Yes | 39c | 43.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed No | 62c | 41.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 34c | 41.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…929ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 39.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 39.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 37c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 59c | 38.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 62c | 32.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 62c | 31.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 48c | 30.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 28.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 40c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 27.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 47c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 39c | 25.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 69c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.