Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06edccd751c0d9cd036f01c3f582a2894d6f9f7a04cc645d502c2e290a4e565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 9c | 975.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 550.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 484.71$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 33c | 371.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.52 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 357.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 32c | 269.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 231$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 220.34$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 212.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 35c | 158$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 156.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 156.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 147.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 141.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 12c | 124.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 115.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 114.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 108.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…b5f0backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…6583backed No | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 88.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 76.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 74.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 36c | 70.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 33c | 69.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 65.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 76c | 64.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 49c | 62.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 62.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 33c | 61.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 60.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 42c | 55.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 54.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…d2a3backed Yes | 33c | 51.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 24c | 51.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 80c | 50.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 32c | 47.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 57c | 43.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…d06fbacked No | 68c | 38.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 77c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 32.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…961abacked No | 70c | 31.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 63c | 30.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…e7f0backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed No | 68c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 19.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.