Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a07c494dfae70afee6f384f424f3751d8651f52b71bcf4cbe54d515ff93c57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern Wildcatsof Michigan State Spartans, Northwestern Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 134$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 58c | 41.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 36.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Northwestern Wildcats | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)this page
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5Under won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-12.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-13.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.