Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bcd1c114d6375ec6e9a3f1d39675013c5ce7ee4d9df79483bb660b02aaaf2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36e6…6894backed Over | 53c | 13,054$6,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,896.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 12,597$5,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,725.18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 54c | 11,641$6,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291.54 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 6,658$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,521.11 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 3,007$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.04 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 46c | 1,250$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.89 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 52c | 710.75$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.59 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 687.79$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.89 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 540$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 56c | 274.66$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 184$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…1cfdbacked Over | 55c | 164.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 11c | 93.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 89.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 85.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Over | 52c | 79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Under | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 45c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 58c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5this page
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-12.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-13.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.