Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde642801970654c3bfc4d90dfb3c4e3e639146e57a70911fb053cd534204a0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern Wildcatsof Michigan State Spartans, Northwestern Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Northwestern Wildcats | 49c | 29,478$14,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,128.4 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 11,398$5,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,795.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 6,884$3,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.8 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Northwestern Wildcats | 50c | 5,793$2,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.79 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 5,022$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.22 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 2,756$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.12 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 2,489$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.34 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 2,147$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.78 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 1,792$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.84 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,450$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…376abacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 1,058$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Northwestern Wildcats | 47c | 601.6$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.85 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 332.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 259.62$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 210$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Northwestern Wildcats | 72c | 204.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Northwestern Wildcats | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Northwestern Wildcats | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 39c | 144.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 20c | 92.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -13.8wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 25c | 84.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Northwestern Wildcats | 49c | 57.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Northwestern Wildcats | 50c | 57.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 53.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 49.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 39.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 30.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Northwestern Wildcats | 50c | 27.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc5…8b18backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 23.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-12.5)this page
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5Under won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-13.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.