TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sporting Kansas Cityof Minnesota United FC, Sporting Kansas City
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,519 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City77c6,276$4,830 inWon+$1,446.423,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Minnesota United FC23c5,555$1,278 inLost-$1,277.653531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Minnesota United FC2c1,112$20 inLost-$19.5782044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Minnesota United FC23c1,087$250 inLost-$25021547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Minnesota United FC26c263.14$67 inLost-$67.1491553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Minnesota United FC24c248.99$60 inLost-$59.75326.4%14 W · 39 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota United FC23c185.99$43 inLost-$42.7826150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Sporting Kansas City75c144$108 inWon+$35.5232848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…262bbacked Sporting Kansas City74c135.14$100 inWon+$35.14580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Minnesota United FC24c123.19$30 inLost-$29.576558.5%38 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Minnesota United FC23c119.2$27 inLost-$27.4211650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Sporting Kansas City77c97.49$75 inWon+$22.541,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Minnesota United FC22c84.37$19 inLost-$18.9123350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Minnesota United FC22c77.88$17 inLost-$17.1652923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sporting Kansas City77c56$43 inWon+$12.881,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Sporting Kansas City77c30$23 inWon+$6.914349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.