TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,326 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under17c5,862$1,025 inLost-$1,025.51,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under21c1,661$355 inLost-$354.841,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under13c1,618$212 inLost-$211.6947240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under17c1,026$170 inLost-$170.441,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over77c646.83$500 inWon+$147.0312667.5%85 W · 41 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under17c645.06$108 inLost-$108.323,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under21c612.99$131 inLost-$130.5492346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9b…4238backed Over80c375$300 inWon+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under15c360.49$54 inLost-$54.071,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Under17c199.99$33 inLost-$3310612.3%13 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over78c191$149 inWon+$41.6222269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Over80c187$150 inWon+$37.420660.7%125 W · 81 L+19.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed Over80c187$150 inWon+$37.416856%94 W · 74 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under20c179.96$35 inLost-$35.4882044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over78c50$39 inWon+$1127344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff53…8eb3backed Over80c50$40 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over77c39.22$30 inWon+$9.024062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe331…0163backed Over78c31.15$24 inWon+$6.852272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.971866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over73c15$11 inWon+$4.052572%18 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.