Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bafb028674033ea900d13e909ab079b31a1300d4ef148ebc99b96b22493d752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 3,295$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 1,307$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.69 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 1,065$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.46 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 58c | 999.86$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.94 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 17c | 750.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 547.26$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.14 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 489.78$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 319.25$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 319.05$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 272.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 246.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 176.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 74c | 139.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 41c | 123.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 13c | 114.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 62c | 95.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 83.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 73.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked Over | 69c | 72.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 36c | 67.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed Over | 67c | 59.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 63c | 45.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 37c | 42.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 37c | 27.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 50c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 40c | 26.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…890bbacked Over | 64c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Over | 62c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Over | 62c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 60c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC: Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.