Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City beat Brentford?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a3328c5694bd12f861a912c2ac568be91fde0fb9e226d48b5f35595e6684345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 16c | 4,287$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.84 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 14c | 2,642$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.86 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 16c | 2,025$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 15c | 2,001$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 9c | 1,194$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 15c | 1,142$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 17c | 1,122$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 16c | 999.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 72c | 800$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…137cbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 74c | 349.76$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 9c | 339.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 22c | 281.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 258.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 16c | 256.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 10c | 250.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 22c | 243.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…5f67backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…93dfbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 14c | 114.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yes | 68c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed No | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 73c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…1f51backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City beat Brentford?this page
- Will Brentford beat Manchester City?No won
- Will Manchester City vs. Brentford end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.