Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a41007eb1efea3175f2e137fe2c2efe21a82e4e14665a9895165c30600e39b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AGELITEof Riddle, AGELITE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3f1…7535backed Riddle | 52c | 587.38$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked AGELITE | 32c | 237.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked AGELITE | 41c | 225$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9618backed AGELITE | 27c | 217.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Riddle | 59c | 205$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Riddle | 65c | 179.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed AGELITE | 31c | 178.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Riddle | 74c | 158$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Riddle | 75c | 118.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Riddle | 68c | 95.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed AGELITE | 32c | 91.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed AGELITE | 30c | 88.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…df38backed Riddle | 62c | 81.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked AGELITE | 28c | 80.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Riddle | 38c | 74.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed AGELITE | 27c | 73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…433cbacked Riddle | 74c | 67.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked AGELITE | 67c | 64.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed AGELITE | 23c | 48.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Riddle | 71c | 45.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed AGELITE | 59c | 44.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…b4a2backed Riddle | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Riddle | 65c | 41.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Riddle | 72c | 40.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…bb78backed Riddle | 76c | 36.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked AGELITE | 73c | 34.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Riddle | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…d785backed Riddle | 68c | 24.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Riddle | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed AGELITE | 65c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Riddle | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main StageRiddle won
- Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 WinnerRiddle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.