Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ Alkmaar beat IF Elfsborg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a53ef8d48c3b8608caa27bc754c0e1b22e6244f9dc6388f9427fcc8f876470d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 35c | 17,190$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,939.59 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 73c | 6,618$4,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.42 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 66c | 6,280$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.97 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.97 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…d9f9backed Yes | 49c | 2,115$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…172ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,511$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 64c | 1,404$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.27 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 34c | 1,187$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.92 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…3af8backed Yes | 66c | 1,059$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 67c | 747.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.51 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Yes | 67c | 742.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 40c | 416.67$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed6…da8abacked Yes | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 70c | 399.49$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…e639backed Yes | 67c | 301.46$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 32c | 288.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 64c | 277.15$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…694abacked No | 36c | 272.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 68c | 269$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 34c | 226.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 64c | 167.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…2be5backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…93dfbacked No | 36c | 136.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 64c | 119.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195f…086bbacked Yes | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c3…ebc7backed No | 34c | 119$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…7e06backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…638ebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…46d3backed No | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…c8eebacked Yes | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 66c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…7d5abacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…61ccbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat IF Elfsborg?this page
- Will IF Elfsborg beat AZ Alkmaar?No won
- Will the match between AZ Alkmaar and IF Elfsborg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.