Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a956130634926a410d85411a3fb96f7f5f0514adc1438c584ebe3b68720a862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 378.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 16c | 239.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 158.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed Yes | 19c | 158.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 155$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 115.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 67c | 100.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 94.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 86.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 81.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 71.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 70.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 61.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 56.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 50.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 49.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 49.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 36.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 78c | 28.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 78c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 78c | 20.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…b46abacked Yes | 80c | 16.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.