Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aefd53d71c2d8129fe7417a036b8d214b357047bdf0dc218fb9a10bb5ea5562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 45c | 504.49$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 330.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 20c | 321.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 57c | 304.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 55c | 255.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 212.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 46c | 201$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 158.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 155$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 147.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 139.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 77c | 122.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 111.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 107.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 99.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 48c | 85.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 85.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 81.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 77.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 74.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 72.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 74c | 71.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 70.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 68.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 65.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 21c | 62.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 39c | 62.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 64c | 62.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 55.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 51.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 50.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 24c | 45.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 45.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 43.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 43.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 58c | 39.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 37.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 36.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…cbf6backed No | 42c | 35.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 73c | 30.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 28.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 55c | 25.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 60c | 25.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 76c | 20.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 78c | 12.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.