World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a97b126c24a2a418256f73eb23c9c18560e951f3b17ca0076fb86f93666fd4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 9c | 2,728$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.39 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 10c | 2,073$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 23c | 2,073$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,573$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,518$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…9422backed Yes | 6c | 1,022$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 4c | 799.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +176%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 11c | 677.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 12c | 494.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 299.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 13c | 232.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…2576backed Yes | 10c | 226.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 15c | 159.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 9c | 146.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 137.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 136.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 13c | 108$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.