World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb928832fa5fe8eb4f5eec7307a5ddf74dce678550a775c68546514042a457c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 2,461$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 17c | 2,083$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.45 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 835.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 8c | 668.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 626.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 392.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 388.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 18c | 330.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 10c | 305.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 222.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 9c | 222.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 31c | 168.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 14c | 154.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 151.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 101.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 100.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 99.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 19c | 84.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 83.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 189 | 56.6%107 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 36c | 82.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 71.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 19c | 69.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 69c | 68.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 30c | 59.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…275dbacked No | 68c | 41.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 38.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 35.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 23.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 71c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 71c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.