World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba088daf63e628c2c1797351b559d81373f9e01576ee7958a82180bfd0cb606e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 14c | 2,194$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.91 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,662$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 29c | 1,280$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.6 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 993.64$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.14 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 30c | 695.19$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 517.33$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 10c | 344.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 314.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 261.02$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 25c | 249.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 226.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 205$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 36c | 188$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 70c | 187.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 38c | 177.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 176$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 173.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 164.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 161.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 18c | 133.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 127.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 37c | 126.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 120.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 119.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 34c | 116.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 115.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 109.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 102.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 99.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 95.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 27c | 91.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 90.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 89.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 16c | 87.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 43c | 83.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 77.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 72.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 71.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 76c | 70.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 63.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 22c | 59.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 58.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 56.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 56.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…f352backed Yes | 20c | 54.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 53.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 53.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 39c | 51.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 319 | 53.3%170 W · 149 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 298 | 58.7%175 W · 123 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…a56bbacked No | 68c | 49.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 192 | 62.5%120 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 47.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 47.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 23c | 45.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 45.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 25c | 42.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 30c | 39.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 38.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 37.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 55c | 37.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 37.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 36.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 209 | 64.1%134 W · 75 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 46c | 34.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 30.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 38c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 30.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 66c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 28.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 190 | 37.9%72 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 66c | 23.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.33per pick | 70cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 67c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.