World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb64c953aa6fad7eab8d3699a655b6e2f22b93e42a78a59e1b801ec9b45933d36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 22c | 3,146$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.58 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 971.74$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.44 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 19c | 907.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 72c | 888.28$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.35 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 506.88$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.25 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 499$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.22 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 452.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.16 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 425.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 50c | 344.64$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.7 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 276.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 254.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 246.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 232.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 205$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 194.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 181.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 172.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 36c | 164.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 156.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 149.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 34c | 142.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 141.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 129.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 122.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 121.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 116$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 113.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 112.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 19c | 105.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 103.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 100.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked Yes | 20c | 100.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +176%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 25c | 95.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 95.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 94.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 93.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 88.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 87.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 87.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 34c | 86.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 21c | 84.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 81.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 80.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 80.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…140cbacked Yes | 33c | 76.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 73.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 44c | 68.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 19c | 67.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 64.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 62.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…2576backed Yes | 32c | 61.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 18c | 60.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 58.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 56.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 54.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 49.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 48.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 37c | 48.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 27c | 44.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 44.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 50c | 44.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 42.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 33c | 40.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 40.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 40.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 209 | 64.1%134 W · 75 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 237 | 44.7%106 W · 131 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 37.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 39c | 35.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 32.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 198 | 69.2%137 W · 61 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 32c | 31.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 192 | 62.5%120 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.