World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8413e1e8388bbf0ce5c64e5189225da9ae167db2692a4523754d55e70b8144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 17c | 3,643$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.76 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 31c | 2,170$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.54 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 21c | 2,048$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 868.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 867.1$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…9422backed Yes | 7c | 499.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 453.56$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 384.18$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 63c | 305.87$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 290.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 15c | 273.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 230.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 196.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…2576backed Yes | 19c | 173.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 173.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 155.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 38c | 152.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 130.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 59c | 127.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 47c | 125.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 76c | 122.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 13c | 111.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 110.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 109.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 109.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 105.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 19c | 100.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +176%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 98.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 74c | 97.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 97.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 89.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 78c | 89.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 87.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 78c | 85.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 298 | 58.7%175 W · 123 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 56c | 74.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 72.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 72.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 71.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 67.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 66.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 209 | 64.1%134 W · 75 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 24c | 63.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 58.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 57.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 56.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 23c | 56.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 80c | 50.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 47.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 46.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 23c | 43.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 40.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 79c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 36.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 34.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 32.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 31.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 63c | 29.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…140cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 77c | 27.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 25.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…f762backed Yes | 42c | 25.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 60 | 81.7%49 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 77cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 192 | 62.5%120 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 198 | 69.2%137 W · 61 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 77c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.