Earnings · resolved market
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a9d4a88a2f6d4c053c74fdab025e42f737d5153fb4207e736ccab6d87cfd3c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,744$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 11c | 710.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked Yes | 75c | 439$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed No | 25c | 266$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed No | 25c | 222$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 26c | 133.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Yes | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed No | 24c | 131$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 23c | 113.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 12c | 98.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 14c | 91.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 69c | 84.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…58cabacked No | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…7e1bbacked No | 21c | 56.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed Yes | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 35c | 46.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 70c | 45.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…6baebacked Yes | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172f…d959backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 61c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.