MLB · resolved market
Will Ben Rice advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa6e8a03d1f839bc8f24ee432139b8bc8f6fb50a0980eca1e4415770e302355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked Yes | 47c | 10,453$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,927.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 53c | 6,037$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.68 | 369 | 32.8%121 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 53c | 2,965$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.84 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 52c | 1,197$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 55c | 153$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Yes | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Rice advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Bryce Harper advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Willson Contreras advance to the semifinals of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.